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Deaths, medical transfers, and infirmary visits among incarcerated people in Pennsylvania state prisons following extreme ambient temperatures Jaquelyn Jahn* Jaquelyn Jahn Claudia Anderson Jessica T. Simes Leah H Schinasi Michael Leung Josiah Kephart Bruce Western

Objectives: To examine excess deaths, medical transfers, and infirmary visits associated with extreme hot and cold temperatures in Pennsylvania state prisons and evaluate subgroup heterogeneity.

Methods: Using administrative data on people incarcerated in Pennsylvania state prisons (2000-2023) and outdoor temperature data for each prison facility, we estimated risk associated with the hottest and coldest 1% of the temperature distribution using distributed lag time series models.

Results: We observed an increased risk of all-cause mortality (RR 1.36, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.84), and infirmary visits (RR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.15) associated with extreme heat exposure compared to a reference temperature of 20 degrees C. There was limited evidence of increased risk associated with extreme cold exposure, except among adults aged 55+ for whom we observed a rise in medical transfers (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.58).

Conclusions: Our findings contribute to the growing research on the adverse health implications of extreme hot and cold temperature exposure for incarcerated populations. As climate change continues to amplify temperature extremes, particularly in the frequency, duration, and severity of heatwaves, policy action including decarceration is urgently needed to protect the health of incarcerated populations.