Injuries/Violence
Housing stability and firearm violence: A natural experiment utilizing COVID-19 eviction moratoria in the United States Christina A. Mehranbod* Christina A. Mehranbod Carolyn S. Fish Ariana N. Gobaud Brady R. Bushover Daniel C. Semenza Christopher N. Morrison
Background
Firearm violence is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the US, particularly in communities with high housing instability. Evictions contribute immensely to housing instability, disproportionately affecting racialized and minoritized groups. Eviction moratoria implemented during COVID-19’s peak offers insights into housing stability’s impact on firearm violence. This study uses eviction moratoria as a natural experiment to examine associations with shootings in US cities.
Methods
We obtained shooting data from the Gun Violence Archive (2018-2021), eviction moratoria information from Princeton University, and eviction filing counts from the Eviction Lab (2020-2021). Major US cities with eviction moratoria, shooting data, and filing counts were included. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to weekly time series data. First, we estimated the impact of moratoria on city-wide shootings from 01/2018 – 04/2021. We also employed ARIMA models to examine variations in eviction filings and shootings from 1/2020 – 04/2021. Next, we applied these ARIMA models specifically to a subset of census tracts theoretically most impacted by evictions — census tracts in the top quartile for renter instability and with a higher-than-city-average percentage of residents racialized as Black.
Results
The analysis included 23 cities. Protective effects of eviction moratoria were estimated in 9 (39%) cities, though some 95% CIs included the possibility of negative associations. For example, in Albuquerque, NM, an eviction moratorium was associated with a significant decrease of 0.01 shootings per 10,000 population per week (95% CI: -0.037, -0.006). Negative effects of eviction filings on shootings were estimated in 11 (48%) cities, though some 95% confidence intervals included possible positive associations. In the subset of census tracts, results were similarly mixed, and no significant effects were found in the relationship between filings and shootings.
Conclusions
Eviction rates may be an important contributor to firearm violence. However, the study of eviction moratoria and filings on shooting rates showed inconsistent results, highlighting the need for further research into the complex drivers of housing instability and community firearm violence.