Background

Effects of transient and sustained transitions into and out of poverty on adolescent outcomes are not well studied and would be helpful to guide policy decisions.

Methods

Using g-computation, we calculated the effects of transitions into and out of poverty for those living above and below 200% of the national poverty line, respectively, on adolescent BMI, broad psychopathology and academic achievement in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study. For those starting in poverty (N=3,959), we assessed effects of sustained (5 years) and transient (1-4 years) transitions out of poverty. For transient transitions, direct and total effects were calculated, with the latter capturing mediation by naturally fluctuating family income after a hypothetical intervention to alleviate poverty. Analogous analyses were conducted to assess transitions into poverty for those starting above 200% of the poverty line (N=7,909). Mean differences (MDs) and bootstrapped confidence intervals were reported.

Results

Transitioning into poverty for as little as 1 year significantly harmed academic achievement (e.g. the direct effect MD=-0.5(-0.8,-0.2) for the first year only), while a minimum of 2 years in poverty were needed to increase BMI (e.g. the direct effect MD=1.2(0.4,1.9) for years 1 and 2). Transitions out of poverty needed to be sustained longer to have an impact. Two or more consecutive years out of poverty was sufficient to improve academic achievement, while 4 to 5 years out of poverty were needed to lower BMI. Total effects generally exceeded direct effects, indicating lingering impacts of income transitions. We found no significant effects of income transitions on parent-reported broad psychopathology.

Conclusions

Transitioning into poverty – even transiently – had stronger effects on BMI and academic achievement than transitioning out of poverty. Policies should aim to transition youth out of poverty for sustained periods of time to affect health and academic outcomes.