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Heat-Related Mortality among Incarcerated Individuals in Texas Jails, 2013–2023 Shreya Patel* Shreya Patel Jaquelyn L. Jahn
The relationship between heat and mortality is well-established in the general population, but research examining heat-related mortality among incarcerated individuals remains limited, particularly among those who are confined in local jails. Incarcerated people have very limited control over their thermal environment, outdoor time, ventilation, and healthcare, contributing to elevated risk of heat-related mortality.
In this study we explored the effect of heat during summer months on mortality in Texas jails between 2013-2023. We obtained daily maximum temperature data at 4 km × 4 km resolution from the PRISM Climate Group and linked it using date and location coordinates with publicly available individual-level data on all deaths in custody from the Texas Justice Initiative. We used a distributed lag model to estimate the 10-day cumulative association between daily maximum temperature (90th, 95th, 97.5th, and 99th percentiles of the maximum temperature distribution) and mortality, with fixed effects for jail facility, month, and year.
Among 797 in-custody jail deaths (excluding deaths during arrest), 359 occurred during summer months (May-September). The study population was predominantly male (85%), with a mean age of 45 years. Findings indicated a clear dose-response association between heat and mortality. Compared to days with a maximum temperature of 20°C, the risk of death was 2.7 times higher at 37.7°C (95% CI: 1.18, 6.22), 2.88 times higher at 38.8°C (95% CI: 1.19, 6.99), 3.05 times higher at 39.8 °C (95% CI: 1.20, 7.76) and 3.25 times higher at 41°C (95% CI: 1.21, 8.71) across ten-day lag periods.
These findings suggest that higher temperatures are significantly associated with mortality among incarcerated people in Texas. Despite existing legislation mandating Texas jails be kept between 65-85 degrees Fahrenheit, these results indicate that facilities incarcerated individuals may still be vulnerable to high ambient temperatures in these settings.