Substance Use
Drug-induced homicide laws and drug overdose mortality in the United States, 2000-2022: A synthetic control analysis Bennett Allen* Bennett Allen Cale Basaraba Corey Davis Seungha Um Katherine Wheeler-Martin Samrachana Adhikari Magdalena Cerdá
Background: Drug-induced homicide laws (DIHLs) are a prominent and controversial criminal-legal response to the overdose epidemic. DIHLs target individuals who provide drugs that resulted in the unintended death of another person. Proponents of DIHLs often argue that they may reduce overdose death by deterring drug distribution. Critics argue that they may discourage help-seeking, mostly target people who use drugs and low-level drug sellers, and amplify racial inequities. Despite the increasing adoption of DIHLs, there is limited evidence of their impact on overdose mortality. From 2000-2022, 13 states enacted DIHLs.
Methods: We examined the effects of DIHLs on overdose mortality in 5 states—Alaska, Delaware, Kansas, Michigan, and Vermont—that enacted these laws from 2000-2022. Using an augmented synthetic control method, we analyzed state-level overdose mortality, demographic and economic data, and co-occurring policy data. Statistical inference was derived through permutation-based placebo testing and conformal inference to estimate effects across 5 post-DIHL years for each state. Sensitivity analyses considered traditional synthetic control methods and robustness to enactment dates. Analyses remain in progress for the 8 other states that enacted DIHLs from 2000-2022.
Results: DIHL enactment was not significantly associated with overdose mortality in any of the five states during the five years post-implementation. Estimated treatment effects were small, with acceptable pre-intervention model fit (RMSPE < 3.0). Preliminary sensitivity analyses confirmed these null findings.
Conclusions: DIHLs were not associated with changes in population-level overdose mortality in the states analyzed. Ongoing work will examine DIHL impacts in additional states. Future research should explore local-level effects of prosecutions under DIHLs and assess broader societal and equity implications to inform public health and criminal justice responses to the overdose crisis.