Substance Use
Impact of the New York City Overdose Prevention Centers on Neighborhood Commercial Activity: A Synthetic Control Analysis Bennett Allen* Bennett Allen Cale Basaraba Czarina N. Behrends Laura C. Chambers Alex Harocopos Brandon D. L. Marshall Magdalena Cerdá
Background: On November 30, 2021, the first overdose prevention centers (OPCs) in the United States opened in the East Harlem (EH) and Washington Heights (WH) neighborhoods of New York City (NYC). In NYC, OPCs are incorporated into syringe service programs (SSPs) and include monitored spaces for drug use to prevent overdose deaths. OPCs face opposition over possible negative neighborhood impacts, including reduced economic activity. Prior OPC research has evaluated their effects on health and crime, but few studies have measured consumer economic impacts. We evaluated changes in consumer mobility and spending around the NYC OPCs before and after implementation.
Methods: This retrospective study used linked, anonymized foot traffic and spending data from SafeGraph for NYC points of interest (POIs, e.g., retail stores and restaurants). Our study period was June 2021-June 2022, with the untreated period ending November 30, 2021. Catchment areas were Business Improvement Districts (BIDs) and 250- and 500-meter buffers around OPCs. Primary outcomes were median biweekly foot traffic and spending. Confounders included neighborhood demographics, gentrification measures, arrests, COVID-19 hospitalizations, and POI features. We used an augmented synthetic control approach to compare OPC areas to counterfactuals constructed from non-OPC BIDs (N=74) and buffers around SSPs (N=18) and opioid treatment programs (N=41). A conformal inference procedure estimated effects at post-OPC timepoints, with placebo testing to estimate overall effects.
Results: We found no changes in foot traffic or spending at any post-OPC timepoint, and overall effects in OPC BIDs were no different from those noted in non-OPC BIDS for foot traffic (EH p=0.284; WH p=0.784) and spending (EH p=0.157; WH p=0.343). Preliminary findings using 250- and 500-meter buffers were similar.
Conclusions: This study provides the first evidence globally that OPCs have minimal impact on neighborhood consumer economic activity.