LATEBREAKER
Health Services/Policy
Impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on non-communicable diseases mortality in Brazil, according to income levels Luciana B Nucci* Luciana Nucci Carla C Enes Flavia M Sarti Wolney L Conde
Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) is associated with an increased risk of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCD). Taxes on SSBs have been successful in reducing consumption and NCD prevalence in several countries. In Brazil, discussions are underway regarding the implementation of such taxes. This study aims to estimate the number of averted deaths in Brazil after a 20% tax on SSBs, considering patterns of consumption of different income levels.
Cross- and own-price elasticities for SSBs after a 20% tax were estimated considering consumption patterns of the population, and of the 25% poorest and richest. Data from Brazil’s nationally representative Household Budget Survey (2017-18) was used to estimate the mean total energy intake (in kcal/day) before and after the tax. Mortality data for 2019 for CVD, diabetes, cancer, COPD, kidney, and liver diseases was extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. BMI was included as a mediator variable, which was calculated using self-reported data from the 2019 National Health Survey. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl (PRIME) was used to estimate the number of deaths averted by a 20% tax on SSBs. Uncertainty intervals (UI) were calculated using Monte Carlo analysis, with all parameters included in the model by sex and 5-year age groups (from 15 to 85+).
The estimated number of deaths that would have been averted in 2019 was 7,170 (95%UI: 6,185-8,233) for the entire population, 10,118 (95%UI: 9,183-11,020), and 20,247 (95%UI: 18,024-22,372) for the poorest and richest income patterns of consumption, respectively. The proportion of averted deaths for those under 75 years of age would be 41% for the whole population and ~58% for both incomes. Most averted deaths would be from CVD (~65%) and diabetes (~25%).
A SSB tax might be an effective fiscal policy to decrease the consumption of SSB and NCD mortality in Brazil, especially when we consider different income patterns of consumption.