LATEBREAKER
Cancer
Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors: Projecting Future Incidence in the United States up to 2040 Ganesh K. Giri* Samuel Antwi Ganesh K. Giri Miko A. Wieczorek Sophia G. Blumenfeld Dave O. Hodge Thorvardur R. Halfdanarson
Background: Pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET) is an orphan, rare malignancy accounting for about 2% of all pancreatic cancers. The incidence of pNET has been rising in the U. S. over the past few decades with a shift towards more early-stage diagnoses, but the etiology of this cancer is poorly understood. Because of insufficient data on pNETs, quantitative projection of future trends could inform strategies for risk prevention to help reduce incidence of this frequently fatal cancer.
Methods: We analyzed population data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program (SEER 21) among individuals ages 20 to 79 years who were diagnosed with pNET between the years 2000 and 2019 (n=14,284). Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to estimate changes in pNET incidence rates in both the observed period (2000-2019) and the projection period (2020-2040). Stratified analyses were performed by sex and ethnicity. All analyses were standardized to the 2010 U.S. population.
Results: Age-standardized pNET incidence rate increased each year, with per 100,000 person-years incidence rate of 0.32 in 2000 to 1.21 in 2019 to 3.02 in 2040. Overall, pNET incidence rates rose from 0.66 per 100,000 in the observed period to 2.00 per 100,000 in the projection period. Incidence rates were higher in men than women. Among women, pNET incidence rates are projected to be highest in non-Hispanic Whites, followed by Hispanics, and Asians, and expected to decrease in non-Hispanic Black women. Among men, incidence rates are expected to be highest in Hispanics, followed by non-Hispanic Whites, non-Hispanic Blacks, and expected to decline in Asian men.
Conclusion: Although pNETs have long been an orphan cancer, incidence rates increased in nearly all sexes and ethnicities in the observed period and are expected to continue to rise in most groups up to 2024, except for non-Hispanic Black women and Asian men. This study provides evidence of projected increases in pNET incidence in several population subgroups, especially Hispanics, non-Hispanic Whites, and non-Hispanic Black men, underscoring the need for vigilance in screening for pNET in these groups.
