Injuries/Violence
Spatiotemporal Analysis Exploring the Association Between Homeless Encampment Sweeps and Area Crime in Denver, Colorado, 2019-2023 Pranav Padmanabhan* Pranav Padmanabhan Samantha K Nall Cole Jurecka Joshua A Barocas
Crime and safety are top issues for U.S. voters and high priority for policymakers. Certain populations, including people experiencing homelessness (PEH), are viewed as criminogenic. Citing public safety concerns, policymakers in several U.S. cities have conducted involuntary displacement (i.e., “sweeps”) of homeless encampments. Growing evidence suggests that sweeps are harmful to the health of PEH, but little is known about their effect on local crime. We aimed to evaluate the association between sweeps and area crime.
We performed a retrospective pre-post spatiotemporal analysis using data from Denver, CO from 11/1/2019 to 7/17/2023. Publicly available crime data contained the date and location of reported crimes. The date and location of every sweep was documented by the City of Denver. We assessed the relationship between sweeps and changes in total crime, crime by National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) category, and offense type using the Knox test statistic. We tested outcomes within 0.25-, 0.5-, and 0.75-mile radii of sweep locations and 7-, 14-, and 21-day periods before and after sweeps.
There were 303 sweeps during the study period. Within a 0.25-mile radius, there was a small but statistically significant decrease in total crime within 7, 14, and 21 days. For example, within 0.25-miles and 7 days, we expected to observe 0.07 more crimes post-sweep (95% CI: -0.54, 0.68), but found an average decrease of 1.31 crimes. Total crime did not change significantly at 0.5- or 0.75-mile radii, except within 0.5-miles and 7 days. Among NIBRS categories, crimes against property decreased significantly within all time periods at 0.25- and 0.5-miles. There were no consistent significant changes in crimes against persons or crimes against society. Changes in specific crimes are outlined in Table 1.
Involuntary displacement of PEH is not associated with a decrease in area crime and should not be considered an evidence-based solution to improving local safety.
