Injuries/Violence
Individual, handgun, and purchasing characteristics and risk of firearm-related violent crime perpetration: a nested case-control study Hannah Laqueur* Hannah Laqueur Julia Schleimer Aaron Shev Rose Kagawa
Statement of Purpose: Firearm purchasing records offer a potentially critical administrative data source to identify individuals at elevated risk of perpetrating firearm violence. In this study, we describe individual, handgun, and transaction characteristics of purchasers in California who went on to perpetrate firearm violence as compared to the general population of registered handgun purchasers in the state.
Methods/Approach: We link individuals with handgun transactions records in California (1996- 2020) to criminal history records (1980-2021) to identify those who perpetrated a firearm-related violent crime. We enroll a dynamic cohort of individuals over a 24-year period (from 1996-2020). To avoid bias due to missing purchase history, we enroll only those for whom we can capture the full legal purchase history (the legal age of purchase in California is 21): e.g., those age 21 in 1996, individuals aged 21-22 in 1997, etc., up to those age 21-45 who purchased a handgun in 2020. Using incidence density sampling, we gender-match purchasers who perpetrated a firearm related violent offense to ten purchasers (controls) who remained “at risk” at the time that the case perpetrated the crime. We examine firearm purchasing patterns, handgun characteristics and criminal history. We analyze the data using conditional logistic regression.
Results/Conclusions: There were a total of 6,153 handgun purchasers arrested for a firearm-related violent crime. The largest risk factor was a prior criminal history: purchasers were roughly four times as likely to be arrested for a firearm-related violent crime if they had any prior criminal history (OR: 3.93, CI: 3.69-4.19). Controlling for criminal history, the type of transaction was still significant: risk increased if the handgun was redeemed at a pawn shop (OR:1.52, CI: 1.17-1.97) or was a low-cost handgun (OR:1.73, CI: 1.52, 1.98). However, when we examine interactions, handgun and purchase characteristics are only significant among those with no prior criminal history.
Significance: We identify several firearm and transaction level risk and protective factors. However, criminal history remains the most important risk factor for subsequent firearm violence.